In the first quarter of 2025, the domestic ABS injection molding material market was stable in the early stage and fluctuated downward in the later stage; in the second quarter, affected by the US reciprocal tariffs, the domestic ABS injection parts market was cautious and wait-and-see, so is there still a chance to turn around?
Supply side: potential pressure in stability
In the first quarter of 2025, the operating rate of the
ABS Plastic Parts industry was stable, the overall load rate remained above 70%, and the average weekly output was stable at more than 120,000 tons, which shows that the production rhythm is stable and there is no drastic fluctuation on the supply side. By the end of March, although some domestic ABS injection parts machine devices had maintenance plans or had been overhauled, from the actual effect, the production loss caused by the maintenance was limited, and some devices canceled or postponed the maintenance plan due to profit considerations, so that the supply reduction plan could not be fully implemented, and the inventory of petrochemical enterprises approached 200,000 tons. The oversupply of market supply has not improved, which has brought obvious inventory pressure to the market. In the long run, the industry is at the peak of capacity expansion. According to the plan, 7 new equipment units will be put into production in 2025, most of which are located in East China. It is expected that the total ABS injection molding capacity will increase significantly to nearly 12 million tons/year by the end of the year. Although the actual release and impact of new capacity in the first quarter have not yet fully emerged, the market participants' expectations of future supply increases have affected the market mentality to a certain extent.
Cost side: Raw material price fluctuations affect cost support
In early January 2025, affected by the continuous decline in styrene prices, some ABS material manufacturers adjusted prices or settled at low prices. Coupled with the weakening of downstream demand, merchants' shipping pressure increased, and the ABS injection molding material market showed a negative downward trend. Subsequently, the sharp rise in crude oil prices led to a strong rise in the prices of styrene, butadiene and acrylonitrile. The cost side was favorable and some ABS material manufacturers tentatively raised prices, but as the Spring Festival approached, market transactions shrank significantly and price increases were limited. After the Spring Festival, the raw material market weakened, especially the sharp drop in the prices of acrylonitrile and butadiene, which caused the production cost of ABS
injection molding parts to drop rapidly, impacting the market mentality. With the increase in the supply of goods in the market, the sales pressure has doubled. In order to ease the financial pressure, merchants ship goods at low prices, and the price inversion phenomenon has become the norm. At the end of March, after a long period of decline, the market saw a period of buying bottom-fishing behavior, and the price center of gravity of some products rose slightly, but the overall market price was still at a relatively low level, and the price trend still faced many uncertainties.
Demand side: terminal demand recovery is slow, and emerging industries are insufficient to drive
Terminal demand recovered slowly in the first quarter, the progress of terminal factories resuming work was not ideal, and the overall load recovered slowly. As the previous inventory has not been digested, the market is insufficient to buy, and the liquidity is poor, resulting in weak support from the demand side to the market. Although the development of emerging industries such as electric vehicles and smart homes has brought new market demand growth points for ABS plastic parts products, in the first quarter, the demand growth in these areas has not been fully released, and the actual driving effect on the ABS plastic parts market is limited. Taking traditional consumer areas such as home appliances and automobiles as an example, their market demand has not yet shown obvious signs of recovery, and has failed to effectively drive the market demand for ABS plastic parts.
Prediction of ABS market trend in the second quarter of 2025
In terms of supply, the capacity expansion plan will continue to advance, new production capacity in Zhejiang, Shandong and other places will be gradually put into use in the second quarter, the supply of domestic sources will continue to increase, and the market supply pressure will further increase. However, considering the current profitability of the industry and the current market demand, companies may adjust the production rhythm according to the actual situation, the capacity utilization rate may not increase significantly immediately, and the increase in supply may be relatively moderate. In terms of demand, with the gradual recovery of the economy and the promotion of policies, the demand for traditional fields such as home appliance plastic parts and
Automotive Plastic parts is expected to gradually pick up under the drive of consumption stimulus policies. For example, some local governments may introduce policies such as home appliance replacement and car going to the countryside to promote the consumption of related products, thereby driving the growth of demand for ABS plastic parts. The demand for ABS plastic parts in emerging industries such as electric vehicles and smart homes may also gradually increase, but the growth rate of demand is still affected by multiple factors such as the macroeconomic situation, consumer confidence and industrial development progress, and there is a certain degree of uncertainty.
In terms of cost and price, in terms of cost factors, the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the market trends of acrylonitrile, butadiene and styrene will still dominate the cost changes of ABS plastic parts. If crude oil prices rise or the supply of raw materials in the market is tight, the production cost of ABS plastic parts and plastic products will increase, which will support the price; conversely, if the price of raw materials falls, ABS prices may continue to be suppressed. In terms of price trends, ABS prices may gradually stabilize in the second quarter in the game between cost and demand. If demand grows significantly, prices are expected to rise, but given the continued supply pressure, the increase will be limited. It is expected that with relatively stable costs and gradually improving demand, ABS plastic parts prices may fluctuate and adjust within a certain range to find a new balance. However, if the oversupply situation worsens or the demand recovery is less than expected, prices may still face downward pressure.
